Element Global Value: January 2013 Report

Below is the January 2013 report for the Element Global Value Portfolio.

Element Global Value - January 2013 by

KazMunaiGas E&P: A True Bargain

Kazakhstan is a huge country that shares its borders with Russia on the North, China on the East and the Caspian Sea on the West. Despite its huge size, the country is home to only 17 million people and has a GDP of $200bn (lower than Portugal) or $12k per capita. Even so, the middle income nation has a per capita income similar to Turkey or Mexico. Supreme Chancellor Nazarbayev has been ruling the country for more than two decades and maintains strong popular support. He has been pushing Kazakhstan towards greater integration with the rest of the World.

The country was one of the last decade's hot emerging markets, with the equity market rising 26 fold between 2001 and 2007. Following the onslaught of the 2008 crisis, the four major banks were rescued and the stock market plunged by more than 75%. Now, five years later, the financial sector still faces challenges.

What caught my attention were the oil & gas reserves:  Kazakhstan is the World's 18th largest oil producer and has plenty of opportunity to grow production, as recoverable (proven) oil reserves stand at 5.5bn tons (9th on the World ranking). To put this into perspective, it would take the largest oil tanker ever built, the Norwegian Knock Nevis, about 10’000 trips to carry all the oil reserves.

Element Global Value - 2012 Letter

I have been managing a portfolio of stocks for two years. To keep track of my ideas, and most important to force myself to be disciplined I have been writing a monthly newsletter where I go over the change in the portfolio during the month, analyse new companies and assess my results.

I have been sending out these reports to friends & family, and have now decided to make them available to the general public. You will notice that the detail level increases substantially with time.

Below is the end of year letter for 2012. The letter is a bit long, but very interesting. It covers the various aspects of how I manage Element. In the report I also do a more detailed review of the largest positions in the portfolio, as well as the positions that have had a poor performance.

Element Global Value - Letter 2012 by

I hope you find the letter interesting and all feedback is appreciated.

Going forward I will post the monthly reports here. I have also made available past reports via my Scribd account. You can access them by clicking this link.